Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/8-10, likely voters, 7/21-23):
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 43 (44)
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48 (45)
(MoE: ±4%)
The last poll we’ve seen from this race (by Rasmussen), showed Wicker leading by nine, so this is a better margin all around.
Musgrove wins black voters by 75-7, and loses whites by 23-73. If Musgrove can consolidate black support to the 90% mark and pull in at least 25% of the white vote, he can win. This one will be tough, but it’s still doable.
That said, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and his gang of crumb-bums are going full-steam ahead on their scheme to move this race to the very bottom of the statewide ballot, obscuring the race from first-time voters who might not mark up their ballots from top to bottom. Barbour is a special kind of cynical scum to pull this kind of move.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
This may sound strange, but this poll is great news for Musgrove. Honestly, I have been thinking recently that with this Palin bounce most profound in the South, Musgrove would be down 15 points right now. This is very solid, and Musgrove and Democrats should take heart.
Wicker leads Musgrove 73-23 among whites, with only four percent undecided. If Musgrove could hold onto this numbers he is halfway home.
The big key number is the black vote. Musgrove leads 75-7 with a big 18 percent undecided. In the past, Musgrove has been criticized by Bennie Thompson and others for not reaching out enough to Mississippi’s black electorate. If Musgrove can bring these undecided voters into the fold while holding nearly a quarter of the white vote, he will win.
It may be a tall order, but it is imminently doable.
I think we can win this one. It’s tough beacuse of how Republican MS is but with the DSCC investing heavily we can win.
Bad news from Maine though.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
Collins up 19. Allen needs a Obama endorsement ad and some hard hitting DSCC ads to start closing that gap. That’s going to be a very tough race.
I don’t see it in the crosstabs. That breakdown means EVERYTHING in a MS race.
I read your link about “full-steam ahead”, because I thought a State District Court judge had blocked the release of the sample ballot. Disgustingly, your link revealed that a three-judge panel of the Mississippi Supreme Court (should that be in scare-quotes?) overruled that decision after business hours last night.
How gross is that?!?
Is that the end of the road for this little skirmish?
Wasn’t this maneuver blatantly against state law? I’m a little flummoxed by this one.
didn’t sue in Federal court. I think this is very arguably a VRA violation.
Is there any real evidence to conclude that moving this race to the bottom of the ballot will hurt Musgrove more than Wicker? Do people think black voters and liberals are too lazy to fill in their whole ballots or something?